Philippine Economy Slows Down – Faces the Weakest GDP Long After the Asian Financial Crisis

  • Growth in the 1st quarter was the smallest since 1998. According to ANZ bank, it is likely that the development falls significantly further in the 2nd quarter, mirroring the full effect of the COVID-19 lockdown measures.


    Effects of the Pandemic

    The Philippine economy shrunk by 0.2% year-over-year in 2020’s 1st quarter.

    Exports and imports declined by 3.0% y/y and 9.0% respectively, coherent with the country’s decreased demand.

    Development in the 2nd quarter likely weakened further, impacting the need to revisit the country’s forecast of 1.2% full-year growth in 2020.


    Relationship with the USD

    The US dollar sees a bullish outlook and expansive strength against ASEAN currencies.

    In particular, the Philippine Peso keeps on floating around as vital support against the US Dollar. It ranges between 50.38-50.52, and it has remained there since November. It is worth noting that a false breakout happened after it has established a new floor at 50.30. A further push above the immediate resistance may make way for retesting 51.13 – 51.30. Falling across 50.30 also uncovered the 2018 low marking at 49.73.

    In any case, further developments and information regarding the countries’ sectors will progress, so it is yet to be perceived how the Philippines will be affected further.




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